Republicans expect to make gains in both chambers of the General Assembly this year, with GOP leaders thinking their chances are the best that they’ve had in years.
A recent Gallup Poll generic ballot response showed Republicans with a 10 point advantage over Democrats in congressional races, the biggest lead the GOP has had since the pollster began asking the question after World War II.
Tim Storey with the National Council of State Legislatures notes that if a traditional trend holds true down the ballot in state legislative races, Republicans could make big gains there too nationwide. Republicans could wind up with the most legislative seats in their column since World War II, Storey writes.
Storey refers to a study by Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz, which indicates that Republicans could flip up to 13 state legislative chambers across the nation:
Those gains could range from a minimum of about 200 seats and 5 chambers to a maximum close to 500 seats and 13 chambers depending on national political climate as measured by the Gallup generic ballot question. However, since the results of the Gallup generic ballot question have averaged very close to a tie over the past several months, the most likely scenario at this point appears to be a Republican gain of between 300 and 350 seats which would be expected to give the GOP control of between 44 and 46 legislative chambers, an increase of 8-10 over their current 36 chambers. A shift of this magnitude, while leaving Democrats as the majority party in more than half of the nation’s 98 partisan legislative chambers, would dramatically increase Republican influence over both state public policy and redistricting.
