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A look back at predictions I made about 2010

December 30th, 2010, 1:11 pm by

As I take a break from my year-end vacation to blog a little, I think back to a lot of the changes that occurred during 2010.

There are the political changes that occurred, both in North Carolina and across the United States.

There were a lot of changes that took place for me too. For a little bit more than the first half of the year, I spent my working hours doing pretty much what I’d been doing for the past dozen years, covering state government and political news from the state capital. Then, as the end of July approached, it became my job to publish a new political website, M2Mpolitics.com.

This was a challenging role for me, one that caused me to get out of my comfort zone.

One tradition I hope to keep going, however, is taking a look at what I see in store for the new year. And, correspondingly, as it becomes time to change the calendar, look back at the previous year and grade myself.

Today, I’ll review how well I did during my predictions for 2010.

1. I said Republicans would take the U.S. House. I was right. Credit me with 10 points.

2. I predicted that Democrats would retain a majority in the U.S. Senate, though Republicans would make gains. At the first of the year, this was a no-brainer. The fact that during the political season pundits were even talking about the possibility of a GOP takeover was mind-boggling. I get another 10 points.

3. I said that U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., would go back to Washington, but only after winning the political fight of his life. Yes, he won, but no, it wasn’t as big of a fight as I thought it’d be. I’m a tough grader, so I won’t even give myself half credit here.

4. I correctly predicted that voters would give Republicans a majority in the N.C. Senate. Give me another 10 points.

5. I incorrectly predicted that Democrats would maintain a majority in the N.C. House and that Speaker Joe Hackney, D-Orange, would be poised to lead a Democratic majority. Hackney will lead Democrats, but he’ll be their minority leader.

6. I predicted that Congress would deliver President Obama a political victory by passing a health insurance bill. Congress did. I’ll take that 10 points.

7. I correctly predicted that Congress would fail in its attempt to pass sweeping immigration reform. This is beginning to sound like a broken record, and will probably be a safe bet next year. I’ll accept the 10 points for this one.

8. I’ll also take 10 points for correctly predicting that Gov. Bev Perdue would convince N.C. Supreme Court justices to keep life-termers behind bars.

9. I was wrong on my March Madness prediction, which included a remark that no North Carolina team would make the Final Four.

10. And my biggest prediction that went awry had to do with the Carolina Panthers. I said they’d rebound and make the playoffs. Ha! Their season was disastrous.

If my math is correct, I get 60 points out of a possible 100. I did better, much better, on my political predictions than I did on my sports predictions. Maybe I should stick to politics.

Newspaper endorsements for Senate split in N.C.

October 22nd, 2010, 1:15 pm by

If you think there’s a media conspiracy when it comes to politics, you can’t prove it by this year’s endorsements for the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina.

Endorsements from some of the state’s newspapers are splitting when it comes to the race between incumbent GOP U.S. Sen. Richard Burr and his Democratic challenger, N.C. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall.

Marshall has gotten the endorsement of the Raleigh News & Observer, the Charlotte Observer and the Independent, a weekly alternative newspaper based in the Research Triangle.

Burr has gotten the nod from the Asheville Citizen-Times and hometown Winston-Salem Journal.

“Elaine Marshall’s life is in may ways a mirror, many mirrors, of the lives of the people of North Carolina,” the News & Observer wrote in its endorsement. “It is a life marked if not defined by adversity. But it has been adversity overcome, and it’s no overstatement to say that it very well could be a life inspiring to others.”

The Asheville Citizen-Times had this to say about Burr: “On a personal level he’s bright, engaging and down-to-earth. It’s refreshing to see a U.S. senator serving as his own chauffeur… Should he regain office, Burr’s status in the Senate would almost certainly be elevated.”

Burr expands his lead over potential Democratic rivals

June 8th, 2010, 5:25 pm by

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is touting two recent polls showing U.S. Sen. Richard Burr expanding his lead in the polls over his two potential Democratic rivals.

The most recent Public Policy Polling survey shows Burr leading Elaine Marshall, North Carolina’s secretary of state, 46 percent to 39 percent.

It shows Burr leading former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, D-Davidson, 46 percent to 35 percent.

A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Burr leading Cunningham 47 percent to 35 percent and leading Marshall 50 percent to 36 percent.

It’s important to note that we’re still nearly five months away from the Nov. 2 general election. And as a PPP blog points out, two years ago incumbent GOP U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole was leading Democratic challenger Kay Hagan, who at the time was a state senator.

Marshall and Cunningham will face off in a Democratic primary runoff on June 22 to see who wins the right to take on Burr in the fall.

All the signs outside the poll were for GOP candidates

May 4th, 2010, 11:42 am by

I just got home from voting in North Carolina’s primary election.

When I came outside the polling place, I noticed something I don’t remember ever seeing before. All the signs outside were for Republican candidates.

I thought that was odd, particularly since North Carolina has a rather interesting and competitive Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

Marshall’s lead widens as a large number of voters remain undecided

May 3rd, 2010, 4:50 pm by

Headed into Tuesday’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary, N.C. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall has expanded her lead over former state Sen. Cal Cunningham of Davidson County, according to the latest Public Policy Polling survey released late Sunday night.

The survey of likely Democratic primary voters shows Marshal

l with 28 percent and Cunningham with 21 percent. None of the other Democratic candidates score in double digits.

Marshall’s seven point lead is wider than her three point lead just a week ago.

The largest number in the poll, however, belongs to those who are undecided, with 33 percent saying they have yet to make up their minds.

That leaves us with two questions on primary eve. One, how will the undecided voters break down on Tuesday? Two, will either candidate garner at least 40 percent of the vote to avert a possible runoff?

The Democratic Senate race is going to the wire

April 27th, 2010, 10:24 am by

We’re one week away from primary election day and the Democratic U.S. Senate race is too close to call.

Heading into the homestretch, N.C. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall still leads former state Sen. Cal Cunningham of Davidson County in the latest Public Policy Polling survey. Marshall has 26 percent and Cunningham has 23 percent. The 3 point lead is well within the margin of error of 4.6 percent.

None of the remaining Democratic candidates score in double digits.

The PPP poll shows 34 percent of the voters remain undecided.

The primary is May 4, with early voting already under way.

Undecided voters to decide Dem. U.S. Senate race; Burr has whopping GOP lead

April 13th, 2010, 12:20 pm by

With just three weeks left until the May 4 primary, a whopping 45 percent of Democrats say they haven’t decided who they’ll vote for in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race. That means the nomination is up for grabs.

However, Elaine Marshall, North Carolina’s secretary of state, has the inside track. The latest Public Policy Polling survey shows Marshall with 23 percent compared to Cal Cunningham’s 17 percent and Ken Lewis’ 9 percent.

On the flip side, U.S. Sen. Richard Burr appears to have a commanding lead for the Republican nomination.

Burr has the support of 67 percent in the GOP primary, with Brad Jones garnering 7 percent, Eddie Burks getting 3 percent and Larry Linney receiving 1 percent.

Marshall leads Democratic U.S. Senate race

January 26th, 2010, 1:27 pm by

The new Civitas poll shows Elaine Marshall, North Carolina’s secretary of state, leading in the race for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination for the seat currently held by Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr.

 

However, that poll shows three out of four Democrats and unaffiliated voters who would be eligible to vote in this year’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary still undecided.

 

Marshall has support from 14 percent of the respondents. Seven percent say they support Ken Lewis of Chapel Hill and 4 percent offer their support for former state Sen. Cal Cunningham of Davidson County.

 

It’s not surprising that Marshall would have twice the support of any other candidate at this point. She’s been on the statewide ballot numerous times, having been elected secretary of state four times. She was also on the ballot in 2002 when she sought the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.

 

Expect numbers to change dramatically in the coming months as campaigns gear up heading toward a May 4 primary.

Burr leads Marshall in Civitas poll

December 15th, 2009, 5:51 pm by

The most recent Civitas Poll shows incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr leading potential Democratic challenger Elaine Marshall by 8 percentage points. The poll shows 40 percent of North Carolina voters either solidly behind Burr or leaning his way. Marshall has 32 percent of the voters either leaning toward voting for her or solidly backing her.

 

All this, of course, assumes that Marshall, the N.C. secretary of state, makes it to the general election next November. Since the poll was taken, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, D-Davidson, has reversed a previous stance and jumped into the race. The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee sought the Cunningham candidacy. Chapel Hill attorney Ken Lewis has also announced his candidacy.

 

North Carolina Democrats (and unaffiliated voters choosing to vote in the Democratic primary) will decide who will head their ticket in the state next May.